2025 vs. 2026 in Las Vegas Real Estate: What We Survived (and What’s Changing Now)

2025 vs. 2026 in Las Vegas Real Estate: What We Survived (and What’s Changing Now)

If 2025 felt like a grind, you weren’t imagining it.

A lot of buyers felt stuck. Sellers felt frustrated. And homeowners kept asking, “Is the market ever going to feel normal again?”

Now that 2025 is behind us, we can finally look at what we survived — and why 2026 is already shaping up differently.

The Rearview Mirror: 2025 Was a Weird Year

Let’s keep this simple: last year was not a “normal” market.

• Las Vegas hit the lowest annual sales since 2007.

  That’s not just a stat — 2007 is a real benchmark year for anyone who lived through the last major market shift.

• The condo market was sluggish, even though we saw a noticeable jump in activity toward the end of the year.

If you bought or sold in that climate… seriously, hats off.

Why 2026 Feels Different (In a Good Way)

Here’s the shift I’m watching closely:

1) More movement is projected this year

Economists (including the National Association of REALTORS®) are projecting about a 14% increase in sales for 2026.

That doesn’t mean every neighborhood will pop overnight — but it does signal what I’m seeing in real time: more people re-entering the market as soon as conditions feel even slightly more predictable.

2) Rates look like they’re stabilizing

Buyers don’t need rates to be “low.”

They need them to stop feeling like a moving target.

When rates stabilize, people start making decisions again — and that’s what creates momentum.

2) Don’t expect a crash — expect steady movement

The most likely path is slow, steady appreciation, not a dramatic price drop.

Translation: if you’re waiting for the “perfect” moment, you might miss the moment where you have the most leverage.

3) We’re in a “Tale of Two Markets”

This is the part that confuses people, so I want it crystal clear:

Condos/townhomes and single-family homes are not moving the same way.

You can have:

• condos feeling balanced (or even buyer-friendly), and

• single-family homes still feeling tighter…

…at the exact same time.

So anytime you hear “the market is up/down,” the real question is:

Which market? Which zip code? Which price point?

The Changing Face of Homeownership (This is a Big Deal)

Another reason the market feels “different” is because who is buying has changed.

• First-time buyers are only 21% of the market — the lowest share on record.

• And the average first-time buyer is now 40 years old.

  
  

That stat alone explains a lot: affordability is pushing first-time buyers later in life, and it’s also changing what people buy first (condos, townhomes, smaller homes, or buying with a partner/family member).

The Bottom Line

2025 was survival mode.

2026 looks like the transition into something healthier: more balance, more negotiation, and more opportunity — depending on the property type and location.

👉 In the next post, I’m breaking down what to do about it — whether you’re buying, selling, or relocating — and the exact four things that sell a home in today’s market.